ComScore today released worldwide search statistics showing 15B monthly searches in North America, following up on their recent report showing 9.8B monthly U.S. core searches. As a video advertising executive, these numbers seemed surprisingly small given that search represents 50% of all online advertising revenue and the core revenue engine of Google and other large online players.
When comparing these numbers to ComScore’s own video impression data, the vulnerability of search as the core online advertising medium becomes instantly clear. ComScore shows 7B U.S. video impressions in March, 8.3B in May, and 9.1B in July.
So, what does this mean?
- U.S. video impressions will pass core search impressions in the next three months
- U.S. video impressions will pass expanded search (meaning including Amazon, eBay, etc.) in the next twelve months.
- Video advertising spend is being underestimated by analysts (eMarketer currently estimates video will grow from 10% to 25% of search revenue, and from 5% to 12% of total online ad spend, over the next five years)
As with all audience shifts, such as network television to cable television or television to the Internet, ad dollars will follow the audience. However, it does take time, as the network to cable transition took 5+ years and we are still in the midst of the spend movement from television to the Internet.
My bet? I estimate that video advertising will be 50% of search revenue within the next five years and will be larger than the entire search advertising business in the next ten years.
Note: If you include rich media banner units that include video in these statistics, you will find that there are both significantly more video impressions and video ad spend than currently being reported.
Wow, sounds like you’re in the right line of business!
js
I’ll take you up on this wager. You are correct that the number of video impressions delivered will soon exceed the number of searches conducted. However, from a revenue perspective that statistic is beside the point. The number of eyeballs you can capture has become less relevant than the number of actions you can produce. It’s 2007; we’ve long since moved from cost per impression to cost per click and cost per action. A search impression on Google generates about 20 cents of profit for the company. Do you really think that a video impression is worth even a measurable fraction of that?